Tesla to the Moon...

 When people ask how far behind other automakers are, perhaps this will put it into perspective. GM announced that they set a record for sales of their lone electric vehicle, the Chevy Bolt in Q1 2021. They sold 9000 units in Q1, a nearly 54% increase year over year. Tesla, for comparison, grew their production capacity year over year by 109% and produced 189,000 EVs in Q1. Tesla is buying mines to produce lithium, nickel, and graphite for their batteries because they are materially constrained in their battery factories. GM is about 2-3 years away from completion of their first battery factory. By that time Tesla will have battery factories in CA, NV, TX, Germany, and China, all producing batteries in quantities that dwarf GMs capacity, and it still won't be enough. VW sales of their ID3 vehicle are doing well compared to GM, with sales of 28k, but 1/4 of those were sold to VW itself, so not as good as it may appear.  The EV revolution is here, and it's happening WAY faster than people in the US think.  By 2025 they'll have a hard time buying anything other than an EV.

 

GM Posts Q1 '21 record EV sales:

https://insideevs.com/news/498574/us-chevrolet-bolt-sales-q12021/

VW sells thousands of EVs to VW:

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/19/how-many-volkswagen-id3-sales-volkswagen-sales-to-itself/

Long time no talk

 It's been a long time since I posted anything on here.  Does anyone still read blogs?  2020 has been a dumpster fire of a year. 

Chevy Volt...the Unsung Hero of the GM Stable

GM EV1

Bob Lutz is nothing if not sure of himself.  When GM created the EV1 it was done as a large scale experiment.  The results of that experiment was that he decided the time was not right for a large scale deployment of commercial EVs.  The EV1 was well received but on the whole, it wasn't really a viable transportation option unless a number of other pieces fell into place - primarily charging infrastructure and battery power density.  He pulled the plug on the experiment, crushed all but a handful of EV1s and let the markets ferment for a bit.  Tesla, through cunning, funding, and sheer force of will, pushed EVs into the mainstream. 

Tesla Roadster

Bob Lutz w/ Chevy Volt Prototype

     Lutz recognized the advantages offered by EVs and how the market conditions had changed by then, largely because of Tesla.  He gave the greenlight to the development of a plug-in hybrid that would eliminate the biggest complaint with most EVs...range.  Eventually that vehicle was unveiled as the Chevy Volt.

Chevy Volt

The vehicle would travel about 35 miles on electric battery power exclusively.  When that was exhausted an on-board gasoline fueled generator would fire up and allow the vehicle to continue on for a few hundred more miles just as it's conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) counterparts do.  The 35 mile electric only range means that the vast majority of the miles that the car travels in its life will not produce any emissions. Most drivers in the US travel 38 miles/day or less.  The Volt was the stepping stone that moved people over. 
     GM grossly over engineered the vehicle. They recognized that the Lithium Polymer battery was a weak spot in the design because there wasn't much known yet about how the large batteries behaved or how long they'd last.  GM tested the batteries extensively and found that extreme swings in temperature and the number of full charge/discharge cycles were among the most significant factors affecting battery performance and longevity.  To get around this limitations, engineers gave the Volt about 20-30% more battery than it actually needed.  This meant that it would never fully charge/discharge.  The battery would never need to work very hard.  To keep it at a stable temperature, a liquid cooling system was used to regulate the temperature.  All rechargeable batteries will degrade eventually.  As the battery degrades, the controls in the Volt make more of the battery's capacity available to ensure that the user doesn't experience loss of capacity.  As of 8/16, GM had zero reported cases of battery replacement due to loss of general capacity.  There have been a few replaced due to component failures, but none that have suffered general capacity failure.  The Volt has a small but extremely loyal, and satisfied, user base.  The Volt has been ranked high or highest in customer satisfaction since its introduction, crash test ratings have similarly been among the best.  Fuel economy obviously scores well.  Reliability is the one that surprised me.  For all the high-tech stuff in the Volt it has proven to be a surprisingly reliable car.  Sure it's had a few quirks to work out, but this is new technology in uncharted waters, some bumps are to be expected. 
     So why doesn't everyone own a Volt!?!?!  The Volt commanded a high price initially at $40k+ and had the misfortune of being released as GM was declaring bankruptcy from the largest financial collapse since the Great Depression.  Bob Lutz was shown the door as part of GMs restructuring and the bailout by the US federal government.  The Volt was his "swan song".  The Volt received a flurry of publicity initially with high-profile celebrities making Volt purchases.  The $40k price tag was a significant hurdle.  The pluses outweighed the cons for the Volt though, and it sold reasonably well.  Over time, the price dropped until it could be purchased for about $30k.  Better still, the federal government created an income tax credit for purchasers of EVs based on EV range.  The Volt is eligible for the full credit of $7500 making the price drop into the low to mid $20k range.  Eventually, when enough are sold, the credit will go away and the Volt's price will return to the $30k range.  It is still the best selling plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV).  In 2016 a second generation Volt was released that provided a more powerful motor, more electric range and some additional features added to improve the Volt's standing. All of this adds up to a fantastic car, at a reasonable price that no one seems to know about.  Those who do know about it generally love it and won't shut up about it.  It's only real competition is from the Prius Prime plugin. 

Prius Prime PHEV

The Prius has half the range of the Volt on battery but better gas mileage afterward.  Having driven a Prius, I can confirm that the Volt feels like a more significant vehicle.  The Prius feels like a stripped down shell of a car.  The Volt feels luxurious in comparison. 

Juggling Benjamins

Because of various transitions and the sale of my employer to a new owner, my 401k and HSA funds have been transferred a combined 8 times from one account to another in the last 6 months.  That means that neither my 401k or my HSA investments have accrued any increases in value for most of the last 6 months, and they've largely been in limbo between different account managers as the transfers were being completed.  It is very frustrating and nervewracking to have large sums of money literally disappear with no trace and have no visibility on it for days or weeks at a time.  I think things are starting to settle down, but I still have about $20,000 that's in limbo.

Guns, Guns, and More Guns

About 5 years ago I was sitting in a restaurant with a friend when the place was robbed by an armed robber.  I think he got away with something like $85 from the till.  Fortunately for me, he didn't look my way.  I suddenly felt very helpless and defenseless.  It was a strange feeling.  I'm not exactly a towering giant of masculine force, but I've never been left feeling defenseless.  For some reason, this experience really set off a chain reaction in my brain.  I'd always had guns.  I grew up in PA.  They give you a Terrible Towel and a .30-06 at the border when you move there for crying out loud.  I passed the hunter safety course at age 12 and went out hunting with my dad a few times, but I never really felt compelled to do much hunting.  It just wasn't for me.  I did enjoy shooting the rifle and shotgun though.  That was always fun.  The deer rifle was expensive to shoot though. I thought about getting my Washington hunting license, but that involved a big complicated process of online courses and field training.  I just wanted to shoot things. So I looked at some guns at a store and learned a bit, and during this time, Washington State passed some very draconian gun control laws.  (I'm not a gun nut, but the law, I-594, can't be enforced, has no way to ensure compliance, and really does nothing to prevent gun crimes.)  I felt if I wanted to get into guns, now was the time, or I'd need to find another way to scratch this itch.  While researching guns I found videos on YouTube from Ted's Holdover.  I discovered that 'BB' guns had grown up since I was a boy.  No longer was the Daisy Red Rider BB Gun the pinnacle of air powered weaponry.  There were now .50cal airguns pushing, massive amounts of lead down range with enough force to take down MASSIVE game animals.  Elk, wild boar, bear, FREAKIN' BEARS!!!  The more I watched the more interested I became.  Here was an option that I hadn't considered.  I could shoot a gun for which there was no deafening 'BANG', there were no legal restrictions, and the projectiles wouldn't send me to debtors prison.  I started researching. 

Umarex PX4 Storm

I started out buying a knock-off Beretta PX4 CO2 pistol.  It's really fun to shoot, but the CO2 powerlets are expensive.  I kept reading about guys shooting PCP rifles and I had no idea what that was, well, aside from a drug that gave people superhuman strengths...I learned that PCP rifles are Pre-charged Pneumatic air guns.  They have a reservoir on-board that stores a charge of compressed air allowing a number of shots from each charge without having to re-pump or prime the reservoir.  It seemed to be a pretty good system.  The guns had a HUGE range in prices, features, calibers, performance...where to begin with learning?  I read, watched videos, read some more, watched some more videos and eventually arrived at a few potential options.  The Benjamin Marauder by Crosman was simple, reliable, and common.  It was the Toyota Camry or Ford Taurus of the PCP gun world.  No frills, but it got the job done.  The other option I looked at was the Hatsan AT-44.  That one looked like a good option on paper, but it had little or no history at the time, so I went with the Marauder.  

But man, even this is still really expensive...$650 for the gun, $100 for the scope, $200 for the pump...$50 for the case...$15 for ammo... so I waited...and waited and watched, and waited...finally I found an angle to get all the pieces I'd need at a reasonable price.  I've had so much fun shooting this gun.  For $15 I can shoot 250-300 rounds.  I eventually purchased a used surplus SCBA tank from eBay and built my own filling station for the gun, so no more pumping for me.  I also learned that my PA Hunter Training certification from 1987 was portable and valid in WA! I got my small game license and I'm in business.  I read through the regulations and learned that I can't take any game with an airgun in Washington...Grrrr!  OK, so now I need a small caliber rifle.  I'm not ready to hunt deer yet.  I start shopping around looking at .22 caliber rifles.  I finally find what I'm looking for at Bi-Mart: a Savage Model 64 .22.

Savage Model 64 .22LR

It's compact, accurate, semi-auto and FUN to shoot. Within two weeks of buying it, I've burned through about 300rounds! I had to purchase gun locks, a gun cabinet, rifle cleaning equipment, scopes, cases...man this is expensive.  But fun.

The Stock Market is Baffling

I posted before about Genspera (GNSZ).  I think that it is a really interesting company with a compelling product.  Today (9/9/15) Genspera announced that their Phase II trials of their lead candidate drug shows promising results against not only liver cancer, but also brain cancer and solid mass cancerous tumors in general.  You'd think that would be a positive bit of news, right?  Apparently not, as the stock nosedived 25% in short order after the announcement.  Baffling.

Genspera (GNSZ)

I am really excited about this stock, and this company.  I first read about them years ago in an article at Gizmodo.com I believe.  The approach that they were taking seemed radically different to what other researchers were working on.  They've created a drug that is completely toxic, derived from a plant that is known to kill anything that eats it, but it can travel through the body harmlessly until it bumps into a specific protein which only forms on the surface of cancerous tumors.  In other words, it's like a smart bomb.  It travels through the veins and detonates at precisely the correct moment and location to cause maximum damage to the target and minimize collateral damage.  They just wrapped Stage II trails with very promising results and are about to begin Stage III trials.  It's a dirt cheap stock currently.  If Stage III trials go well, I'd imagine it can only go up.  I'm excited for the concept, I'm excited for the results, and I'm excited for the potential.  If I can get rich off of it in the process....all the better.



Press Release:

SAN ANTONIO, Jan. 16, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- GenSpera Inc. (OTCQB: GNSZ) today announced the encouraging results of a Phase II study of mipsagargin (G-202), an investigational agent for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The results will be presented today (12:00 to 2:00 p.m. PST, Abstract #301) in a poster presentation at the 2015 Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium in San Francisco, California. 

The Phase II results demonstrated that mipsagargin appears to be effective and is well-tolerated by HCC patients. Mipsagargin targets the enzyme prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA), which is highly expressed in tumor vasculature and prostate cancer cells. The Phase II study results (n=25) demonstrate that the prodrug effectively stabilizes progression of HCC by reducing blood flow within tumors while not affecting blood flow within normal tissues. 

"We are very encouraged with the positive results from this Phase II trial that demonstrate the tolerability and show indications of effectiveness of mipsagargin in advanced liver cancer patients," said Craig Dionne, PhD, chief executive officer at GenSpera. "Mipsagargin is a first-in-class agent with a novel mechanism of action that is unlike any other drug being tested in patients with advanced liver cancer. Based on the results of this study, we intend to move forward with a large, global Phase III trial."

Mipsagargin's targeted approach differs from other vascular targeting agents by destroying established tumor vasculature rather than slowing the growth of new tumor blood vessels. The PSMA-targeting agent is designed to minimize side effects commonly observed with other therapies, while maximizing activity against tumors. 

"These results demonstrate the potential that mipsagargin has to treat one of the world's deadliest cancers," said Devalingam Mahalingam, MD, PhD, an oncologist at the Cancer Therapy & Research Center at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio and principal investigator of the study. "In addition to observing prolonged disease stabilization in some patients, we noted anecdotal evidence that patients had improved performance status with much less fatigue and side effects associated with other anti-cancer therapeutics."

With Phase II complete, GenSpera is designing a large, international Phase III study which will further define the anti-tumor potential of mipsagargin in liver cancer patients. More information on mipsagargin (G-202) can be found at www.genspera.com.

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common form of cancer that originates in the liver. In the United States, more than 33,000 new cases will be diagnosed in 2015. Globally, liver cancer is a primary public health issue with more than 700,000 people diagnosed and more than 600,000 deaths annually. It is the most common type of cancer in Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. A liver cancer diagnosis is often subsequent to other liver disease, making treatment of a highly compromised patient population particularly challenging.

Data Establishes Foundation for Continued InvestigationThe Phase II study (Abstract #301) of mipsagargin was a multi-site, single arm study designed to assess time to progression and response rate to treatment. The study measured disease progression in 25 patients with advanced-stage liver disease and poor liver reserves who had failed first line treatment with sorafenib. Patients were administered episodic dosing of mipsagargin on the first three days of each treatment cycle. Study participants experienced a median time to progression of 4.2 months, nearly twice the time demonstrated in prior studies with placebo or ineffective agents. Thirty-five percent of patients received 5 or more cycles of treatment with an average time on study of 7.1 months.  Additionally, mipsagargin demonstrated decreased blood flow in liver tumors as measured by DCE-MRI.

About GenSperaGenSpera Inc. is a San Antonio-based biotech company that unlocks conventional thinking to conceive, design, and develop cancer therapies. GenSpera's technology platform combines a powerful, plant-derived cytotoxin (thapsigargin) with a patented prodrug delivery system that provides for the targeted release of drug candidates within tumors. GenSpera's lead drug candidate, mipsagargin, was granted Orphan Drug designation by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2013 for evaluation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (liver cancer).